Days Before Presidential Election, Panama Frontrunner Faces Potential Disqualification

Panama's presidential election, set to take place on Sunday, is shrouded in uncertainty as the Supreme Court weighs the eligibility of the leading candidate, José Raúl Mulino. A conservative lawyer, Mulino has been topping opinion polls with 25-30% of voter intention. However, his fate now hangs in the balance pending the court's ruling.

Why this matters: The outcome of the election will have significant implications for Panama's democracy and its relations with the US, particularly in terms of anti-corruption cooperation. The next president will face an uphill battle in addressing the country's economic and environmental challenges, which could have far-reaching consequences for the region.

Mulino stepped in to represent the right-wing Realizing Goals (RM) party after ex-president Ricardo Martinelli was disqualified following a money laundering conviction, for which he was sentenced to nearly 11 years in prison. Mulino previously served as Martinelli's vice-presidential running mate and held various ministerial positions during Martinelli'spresidencyfrom2009 to 2014.

The Supreme Court is currently considering a challenge against an electoral tribunal decision that allowed Mulino to stand despite not having participated in a primary vote or selecting a running mate, which is required by law. Mulino himself had served time in pre-trial detention on a corruption accusation in 2015-2016 but was freed as a result of a procedural error.

On Wednesday, Mulino expressed criticism of the uncertainty created by the last-minute court case but defiantly declared at a press conference: "I will run on Sunday," regardless of the outcome. The Supreme Court's ruling will determine whether Mulino's name appears on the ballot, leaving voters in the dark about the fate of the frontrunner mere days before casting their votes.

Panama is currently struggling with a range of issues, including an economic slowdown, drought, and widespread protests. The closure of the Cobre Panamá copper mine has exacerbated the country's problems, resulting in a significant loss of revenue and the downgrade of Panama'sinvestment grade rating. The drought has also hindered operations at the Panama Canal.

Despite the pressing challenges facing the nation, the presidential candidates have largely failed to present clear solutions. The campaign has been remarkably lacking in substantive debates and proposals to address these critical issues, with candidates instead focusing on unrelated matters.

Martinelli's influence dominates over Mulino's campaign, with the latter set to benefit from the transfer of Martinelli's voter base. However, Mulino is perceived as a strong-willed individual with well-defined ideas, who would likely govern independently ifelected.

The outcome of the election will have significant ramifications for US-Panama relations, particularly in terms of anti-corruption cooperation. However, foreign policy has been conspicuously absent from the campaign discourse, with no candidate articulating specific strategies for engaging with the US, China, or other key partners.

Regardless of who emerges victorious, the next president will lack a strong mandate from the electorate and face an uphill battle in passing key legislation. This could potentially trigger new waves of public unrest in the coming years. Political analyst Juan Diego Alvarado encapsulates the mood, stating,"These elections feel urgent and tremendously uncertain... Democracies need certainty in the electoral process. And right now we are days away from an election and it's possible the frontrunner won't even be able to run."

As Panama stands at a critical juncture, the Supreme Court's impending decision on Mulino's eligibility has cast a long shadow over thepresidential election. The next president will inherit a nation struggling with economic turmoil, environmental challenges, and social unrest, making this a defining moment for Panama's democracy.

Key Takeaways

• Panama's presidential election is uncertain due to a Supreme Court ruling on leading candidate José Raúl Mulino's eligibility.
• Mulino, a conservative lawyer, has been topping opinion polls with 25-30% of voter intention.
• The election outcome will impact Panama's democracy, US relations, and anti-corruption cooperation.
• Panama faces economic, environmental, and social challenges, including a copper mine closure and drought.
• The next president will lack a strong mandate and face an uphill battle in passing key legislation.