China's One-Child Policy Legacy Shapes Attitudes on Family Size

China is grappling with a demographic crisis as its birth rate has halved over the last decade, with the lingering effects of the country's one-child policy continuing to shape attitudes towards family planning. According to David Rennie, The Economist's Beijing bureau chief, and Alice Su, senior China correspondent, many young women in China now idealize small families, with some even preferring to have no children at all.

Why this matters: The decline in China's birth rate has significant implications for the country's economic and social stability, as an aging population can lead to labor shortages and increased pressure on pension systems. Moreover, the demographic crisis can have far-reaching consequences for global economic growth and trade.

The one-child policy, implemented in 1979 to control population growth, ended eight years ago in 2016. However, its legacy has contributed to a shift in societal attitudes towards family size. The policy is estimated to have prevented around 400 million births, but it also led to an uneven male-female ratio, with 116 boys born for every 100 girls, and an aging population.

Despite the official end of the one-child policy, China's birth rate has continued to decline. In 2021, the family planning policy was further loosened to allow families to have three children, but the country's birth rate fell by 1.57% to 10.478 births per 1,000 people, according to Macrotrends.net.

The lingering effects of the one-child policy have led to an aging population, with a significant proportion of elderly individuals relying heavily on their children for care. Couples face the challenge of simultaneously tending to the needs of four elderly relatives while balancing demanding employment and raising their own children.

Several factors contribute to the low birth rates in China, including the hypercompetitive academic environment, the high cost of raising children, and inadequate support for mothers. "The cost of raising a child until they are 18 relative to per capita GDP is around 6.3 times in China," according to Channel News Asia. Additionally, having a child generally leads to a 12%-17% reduction in women's wages.

The Chinese government faces the challenge of addressing the rapidly aging population and promoting increases in the birth rate. Despite 2024 being the Year of the Dragon, traditionally associated with a spike in births, it is unlikely that China will experience a baby boom. Resolving the challenges faced by women and providing adequate support for families will be crucial in encouraging couples to have more children and mitigating the demographic crisis.

Key Takeaways

• China's birth rate has halved over the last decade, with a significant impact on economic and social stability.
• The one-child policy's legacy has led to a shift towards smaller families, with some young women preferring no children.
• The policy prevented 400 million births, but also led to an uneven male-female ratio and an aging population.
• Low birth rates are attributed to factors like high childcare costs, hypercompetitive academics, and inadequate support for mothers.
• Resolving these challenges is crucial to encouraging couples to have more children and mitigating China's demographic crisis.