U.S. Military Presence Strategy in Africa Falters as Countries Turn to Russia

U.S. officials are coming to terms with the reality that their military presence strategy in Africa is failing, as several African countries, weary of imposed democracy, are increasingly turning to Russia for assistance. The shift in allegiances has raised concerns among U.S. officials struggling to maintain influence in the region as Russia gains a stronger foothold.

The U.S. is set to withdraw its troops from Niger, a move that could significantly impact counterterrorism missions in the West African Sahel region. The decision to pull out 1,000 American troops from Niger will likely result in the closure of a $110 million U.S. air base used for drone intelligence and surveillance operations. Chad has also requested the removal of U.S. troops, further complicating the situation.

The removal of American troops from both countries could degrade the U.S. ability to actively monitor and warn, including for homeland defense. However, the U.S. maintains that American troops have not been asked to leave Chad.

The situation reflects a larger concern for the U.S. in Africa, as Russia and the Wagner group's influence grows, and African countries look to the Kremlin for military assistance and weapons. The U.S. is planning to withdraw its troops from Niger, where the military junta has denounced the U.S. presence as 'illegal' and has fostered close ties with Moscow instead.

The U.S. and French presence has rapidly eroded across the Sahel region, with countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad also turning to Russia for support. Russia has been actively courting these countries, providing military equipment, security assistance, and economic deals. The withdrawal of Western forces has created a security vacuum, allowing the Islamic State to thrive in the region. Some experts believe the Islamic State is now more active in the Sahel than in Iraq and Syria, as the group can offer economic opportunities to those with limited job prospects.

Why this matters: The shift in allegiances from the U.S. and its allies to Russia in the Sahel region has significant implications for regional security and counterterrorism efforts. As Western influence wanes and Russia gains a stronger foothold, the future stability of the region hangs in the balance.

U.S. officials are particularly worried about operating in countries with increasing military ties to Russia. The Biden administration's strategy of engaging coup governments and negotiating roadmaps for democratic elections has largely been rebuffed by African leaders, who do not want to be told how to govern. The U.S. fears that withdrawing from these countries will leave a gap for Russia and China to fill, but providing the kind of immediate security assistance that Russia offers has been a challenge for the U.S.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. military presence in Africa is failing as countries turn to Russia for assistance.
• U.S. to withdraw troops from Niger, impacting counterterrorism missions in the Sahel region.
• Russia's influence grows as African countries seek military aid and weapons from the Kremlin.
• Security vacuum in the Sahel allows Islamic State to thrive, posing regional stability concerns.
• U.S. struggles to provide immediate security assistance like Russia, losing influence in Africa.