US Threatens Sanctions on Venezuela if Maduro Fails to Uphold Election Deal

The United States is considering reimposing oil sanctions on Venezuela if President Nicolás Maduro does not fully comply with the terms of the Barbados agreement, which was signed between his government and the Venezuelan opposition last year. The agreement was intended to pave the way for competitive presidential elections in July 2024, including the participation of previously disqualified candidates and the release of political prisoners.

However, the Maduro government has not upheld its commitments under the agreement, as it has blocked some opposition candidates from the ballot. The US had granted Venezuela partial sanctions relief in October 2022 following the Barbados deal, but this license is set to expire on Thursday. Barring any last-minute concessions by Maduro, the US is unlikely to extend the sanctions deal.

Why this matters: The withdrawal of US sanctions relief would mark a major step back from President Joe Biden's policy of re-engagement with the Maduro government. It could also spur higher global oil prices and increase the flow of Venezuelan migrants to the US-Mexico border as Biden campaigns for reelection in November.

The decision to reimpose oil ban is being weighed against these concerns, as well as the impact on the Venezuelan economy and people. The US has made clear it will reimpose sanctions if Maduro does not allow the opposition to run the candidate of its choice against him in the upcoming election.

Negotiations between the Venezuelan government and the US to renew the temporary oil and gas sanctions relief license have failed, with the deadline approaching. The Venezuelan opposition is also struggling to unite behind a single presidential candidate to challenge Maduro.

Venezuela's oil exports rose to their highest level since early 2020 in March as customers rushed to complete purchases ahead of the possible return of sanctions. The Maduro government has reacted with defiance to Washington's warnings, but has complied with some terms of the Barbados deal. The opposition is currently holding internal negotiations about a potential substitute candidate after authorities maintained an election ban on Maria Corina Machado, who won the opposition primary last October.

Key Takeaways

• US considering reimposing oil sanctions on Venezuela if Maduro fails to comply with Barbados deal
• US sanctions relief on Venezuela set to expire, unlikely to be extended without Maduro's concessions
• Reimposing sanctions could impact global oil prices and Venezuelan migration to US-Mexico border
• Negotiations between Venezuela and US to renew sanctions relief have failed, deadline approaching
• Venezuela's oil exports rose in March as customers rushed to complete purchases before sanctions return