Trump Vows to Demand 3% NATO Defense Spending if Re-Elected in 2024

Former President Donald Trump plans to demand that NATO countries increase their defense spending to 3% of their GDP as a condition for continued US commitment to European defense if he wins the 2024 presidential election. Trump's approach would likely involve pressuring NATO's European members to deliver on their promises to pay more for their defense, threatening not to come to their aid if they don't comply.

Why this matters: The outcome of this demand could significantly impact the balance of power in the North Atlantic region, potentially leading to a shift in the global security environment. Moreover, it could also have far-reaching consequences for the economies of NATO member countries, as increased defense spending could divert resources from other critical areas such as healthcare and education. Moreover, it could also have far-reaching consequences for the economies of NATO member countries, as increased defense spending could divert resources from other critical areas such as healthcare and education.

The old NATO is over, and a fresh chapter, dubbed "NATO Mk III," is being negotiated in a post-2008 context characterized by a pivot to the Indo-Pacific region and pressure on European allies to meet their defense spending commitments. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced a reassessment of European defense, and European leaders are now coming to accept that they need to step up their defense spending.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently announced plans to raise Britain's defense spending from 2.32% of GDP to 2.5% by 2030, calling it "a turning point for European security and a landmark moment in the defense of the United Kingdom." The increase will involve significant expenditure on munitions production, procurement reform, and research and development.

Other European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Commission High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Josep Borrell, have also announced plans for rearming Europe. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has welcomed these developments, suggesting that NATO Mk III will likely involve a greater emphasis on European defense spending and capabilities.

In 2014, NATO members agreed to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense, but only three countries met this target at the time. Currently, 18 of NATO's 31 members will meet or exceed the 2% target, with Germany meeting its commitments for the first time ever. If all NATO countries matched Britain's commitment to spending 2.5% of GDP on defense, Europe's collective expenditure would rise by some £140 billion ($175 billion).

Trump's demand for a 3% defense spending target would represent an even more significant increase in European military expenditure. Time will tell how NATO members would respond to such a demand and whether they would be willing to commit to the higher spending level. The US has long been the dominant force in NATO, but Trump's approach couldstrain relationswith European allies.

The evolving security situation in Europe, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has brought the issue of defense spending to the forefront. As NATO adapts to new challenges and seeks to maintain its relevance in the 21st century, the question of burden-sharing among its members will likely continue to be acentral pointof discussion and negotiation.

Key Takeaways

• Trump plans to demand NATO countries increase defense spending to 3% of GDP if re-elected.
• This could impact the global security environment and divert resources from healthcare and education.
• European leaders are increasing defense spending, with Britain aiming for 2.5% of GDP by 2030.
• Currently, 18 of 31 NATO members meet or exceed the 2% defense spending target.
• Trump's demand could strain relations with European allies and impact NATO's future.