Census Data on Transgender Population in England and Wales Criticized as "Seriously Flawed"

The accuracy and reliability of data on the transgender population in England and Wales from the 2021 national census has come under scrutiny. Michael Biggs, an Oxford University sociologist and board member of the gender-critical group Sex Matters, has claimed that the census results are "seriously flawed" and "implausible."

According to the 2021 census, there were 262,000 transgender people in the UK, with 118,000 not providing further detail, 48,000 identifying as trans men, 48,000 as trans women, 30,000 as non-binary, and 18,000 writing in a different gender identity. However, Biggs argues that these statistics "contradict data on referrals to gender clinics and signatures on a pro-transgender petition."

Biggs contends that the "spurious results were produced by a flawed question which originated with a transgender campaigning organization" and that the question "evidently confused a substantial number of respondents who erroneously declared their gender identity to differ from their natal sex." He points to inconsistencies and anomalies in the census results, such as discrepancies related to geography, language, education, ethnicity, and religion, which cast doubt on the validity of the reported statistics.

Why this matters: The debate over the accuracy of the transgender population data in the census highlights the challenges in collecting sensitive demographic information and the importance of robust methodology. The implications extend to policymaking, resource allocation, and ensuring adequate support for transgender communities.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has defended the design of the gender identity question, stating that it underwent a rigorous testing process. However, the ONS acknowledged the inherent challenges in designing such a question and the presence of uncertainty in the estimates. In October 2022, the women and equalities minister Kemi Badenoch had ordered an investigation into whether the count of transgender people had been overestimated due to people not understanding the gender identity question.

Critics, such as Maya Forstater of the Sex Matters charity, have called for the statistics regulator to declare the statistics on gender identity as "not fit to be recognized as national statistics." Biggs' critique underscores the need for careful consideration in data collection processes to ensure accurate representation and informed decision-making regarding policies and support for transgender communities.

Key Takeaways

• Census data on UK transgender population disputed as "seriously flawed".
• Sociologist claims census results contradict other data on transgender people.
• Flawed question design and respondent confusion cited as issues with data.
• ONS defends question design but acknowledges uncertainty in estimates.
• Calls for statistics regulator to declare data "not fit" as national statistics.