Australia's Fertility Rate Drops Below Replacement Level, Projected to Decline Further

Australia's fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 babies per woman and is projected to decrease further to 1.45 by 2100, according to a recent study published in The Lancet. The fertility rate in Australia has fluctuated over the past few decades, dipping below 2.1 in the late 1970s, rebounding in the late 2000s, and then plunging again during the COVID-19 pandemic to a low of 1.59.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics' central projection assumes the rate will remain around 1.6 for the next 50 years, with alternative scenarios showing it falling to 1.45 or rebounding to 1.75. The study found that Australia's native-born population fertility rate has fallen from 1.95 births per woman in 1950 to 1.58 births per woman in 2017, and is expected to continue declining to 1.26 births per woman by 2100.

Why this matters: The declining fertility rates in Australia and globally have significant implications for population aging, labor shortages, and the provision of services for growing populations. Policymakers will need to address these challenges as fertility rates continue to fall below replacement levels in many countries.

This trend is consistent with global patterns, as fertility rates have been declining in many countries due to factors such as increased access to education and family planning, urbanization, and economic development. Globally, more than half of the world's countries have a fertility rate below replacement level, including China, South Korea, and India. The fertility rate has halved worldwide since 1950, and is projected to sink below 1.96 by 2100.

While this trend is seen as a sign of societal success, as richer nations are able to care for their aging populations without relying on high birth rates, the declining fertility rates in poorer nations will create challenges in providing jobs, housing, healthcare, and services for rapidly growing populations.

The study's findings emphasize the need for policymakers to address the implications of declining fertility rates, such as population aging and potential labor shortages. As fertility rates continue to fall in Australia and worldwide, governments will need to adapt policies and services to meet the changing demographic landscape.

Key Takeaways

• Australia's fertility rate has fallen below replacement level of 2.1 and is projected to decrease to 1.45 by 2100.
• Australia's native-born population fertility rate has declined from 1.95 in 1950 to 1.58 in 2017, expected to reach 1.26 by 2100.
• Declining fertility rates have implications for population aging, labor shortages, and provision of services for growing populations.
• Global fertility rates have halved since 1950 and are projected to sink below 1.96 by 2100, with over half of countries below replacement level.
• Policymakers must address the challenges of declining fertility rates, such as population aging and potential labor shortages.