U.S. and Saudi Arabia Near Historic Defense Pact Linked to Israel-Palestine Peace

The United States and Saudi Arabia are nearing a historic defense pact that would offer the kingdom security guarantees and a possible pathway to diplomatic ties with Israel if the Saudi government helps bring an end to the war in the Gaza Strip.

The agreement, which is a new version of a framework previously scuttled when Hamas's attack on Israel triggered the conflict in Gaza, has seen accelerated negotiations between Washington and Riyadh in recent weeks.

Under the proposed deal, Saudi Arabia would agree to limit its use of Chinese technology and receive U.S. investments in artificial intelligence and civilian nuclear help, in exchange for presenting Israel with a pathway to Palestinian statehood. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia would then present Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a choice to either join the deal, which would entail formal diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and more regional integration, or be left behind.

Why this matters: The potential agreement would reshape the Middle East, bolstering Israel and Saudi Arabia's security while strengthening the U.S. position in the region at the expense of Iran and China. It represents a groundbreaking move that could serve Israel's strategic interests by completing the Arab world's recognition of its existence and security needs, while also creating new economic opportunities.

The proposal faces significant obstacles, including getting U.S. lawmakers to approve a deal that commits the U.S. to protecting Saudi Arabia militarily, and Netanyahu's reluctance to agree to a two-state solution. However, the leaders of the three countries have incentives to reach an agreement soon, as it would represent a foreign policy victory for President Biden, avoid uncertainty for the Saudi crown prince, and allow Netanyahu to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia.

In the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and resistance from the Israeli government, the Saudis are also pushing for a more modest plan B that excludes the Israelis. This would involve the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signing bilateral defense, nuclear energy, and AI technology-sharing agreements, while still offering Israel normalization of relations in exchange for accepting a two-state solution.

Senator Edward Markey has urged the Biden administration to include strict non-proliferation safeguards in any nuclear power deal with Saudi Arabia, as he believes the kingdom cannot be trusted to use its nuclear program purely for peaceful purposes and may seek to develop nuclear weapons. Markey has called for the adoption of 'gold standard' non-proliferation safeguards and required Saudi Arabia to be held to the 'additional protocol' standards of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The timing and political circumstances may make it difficult for the Biden administration to shepherd a U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear agreement and defence pact through the congressional approval process before the November elections. Saudi Arabia has called for an immediate truce and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, which Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has met with Netanyahu to discuss efforts to achieve a lasting, sustainable peace in the region, stressing U.S. concerns about a possible Israeli offensive in the town of Rafah.

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are nearing a historic defence pact to reshape the Middle East
• The pact offers Saudi security guarantees, pathway to ties with Israel
• Meanwhile, the pact is facing some obstacles, including U.S. lawmakers and Netanyahu's reluctance
• Concerns over Saudi nuclear program's potential for weapons development